Simulation Parameters
Starting Portfolio
$500,000
Bitcoin Allocation
60%
Cash Reserve Buffer
$50,000
Annual Living Spend
$40,000
Expected BTC CAGR
35%
BTC Annual Volatility
65%
S&P 500 / Stock CAGR
10%
Inflation Rate
4.0%
Capital Gains Tax Rate
15%
Median Wealth (Y10)
$0
50th percentile
Downside Floor
$0
10th percentile
Upside Potential
$0
90th percentile
Plan Success
100%
Never hit $0
10-Year Stochastic Trajectories
Percentile envelopes (10th to 90th) plus individual sample paths
Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM):
Each asset trajectory is calculated using log-normal random walks with drift: $\Delta S = S(\mu \Delta t + \sigma \epsilon \sqrt{{\Delta t}})$.
Cash Buffer Liquidation Engine:
Spending is pulled from cash first to avoid selling during deep drawdowns. When cash runs dry, assets are liquidated with capital gains tax.