The HODL Report: Market Pulse, 95% Mined Supply & BIP 110 Signaling Update

1. Macro Market Pulse & Key Metrics

Bitcoin is demonstrating strong resilience, bouncing back up over 7.2% in 7 days to trade around the $64,950 level with a network market cap of $1.3 Trillion.

Historic Supply Scarcity: 95% Mined

The network has officially crossed an extraordinary milestone: 95% of all 21 Million Bitcoins have been mined.

Over the next 100+ years, only ~940,000 Bitcoins remain to be mined across all future block reward halvings. Programmatic supply constraints are growing tighter by the day.

2. Sentiment & On-Chain Price Temperature

Despite the 7%+ price rebound, market sentiment remains cautious:

• Fear & Greed Index: 29 (Exited Extreme Fear, currently residing in Fear territory). Historically, buying during fearful sentiment periods yields superior risk-adjusted long-term returns.
• 4-Year Simple Moving Average (SMA): Currently sitting at $61,336. Bitcoin’s current price ($64,950) is only 5.4% above its 4-year SMA, placing it firmly in the **undervalued green zone**.
• Realized Price: Resting at $52,850, while adjusted realized price (excluding 7+ year dormant coins) remains well supported.

3. Strategy Spotlight: Accelerated DCA vs. Flat DCA

In our weekly strategy review, we evaluated the performance of our **Dynamic Accelerated DCA Strategy** (buying $100 baseline vs $200–$400 accelerated allocations during Fear signals):

4. Corporate Treasuries: MSTR & Strive Mechanics

We also unpacked how corporate treasury vehicles navigate share issuance premiums and discounts:

MicroStrategy (MSTR) continues building out its USD cash reserves to bolster credit quality and safety metrics for its STRC product line. While critics highlight share dilution during price pullbacks, issuance at a premium during bull markets acts as a net positive engine for long-term BTC accumulation per share.

5. BIP 110 Soft Fork: Epoch 475 Signaling Update

As we approach the UASF timeline, miner signaling for BIP 110 remains very low:

• Signaling Rate: Epoch 475 signaling stands at 0.84% (11 out of 133 blocks), far below the 95% consensus activation threshold.
• Mining Pool Votes: Foundry USA has announced plans to survey miner sentiment, while Ocean Mining VP Jason Hughes published an analysis noting BIP 110 is currently on track to fail activation.
• Node Diversity: The rise of alternative implementations like Bitcoin Knots provides node runners with policy freedom without necessitating contentious consensus soft forks.

Watch the full live stream recording on YouTube: The HODL Report Live Stream.